Investment bank Bernstein has recently released an eye-catching research report predicting that the cryptocurrency market’s bull cycle will last until 2026. This ongoing surge will not only continue the current upward momentum but will also be driven by two emerging forces—stablecoins and security tokenization—leading to a complete reshaping of the digital asset ecosystem. Meanwhile, the report specifically mentions retail trading platform Robinhood, forecasting that its cryptocurrency trading volume will surge to three times the level seen in 2024 by 2026, making it a key beneficiary of this bull market.
Stablecoins and Security Tokenization: The “Dual Core Drivers” Behind the Bull Market
Bernstein’s analysis highlights stablecoins as the “stabilizing anchor” of the crypto economy, rapidly moving beyond their initial role as payment tools to becoming bridges connecting traditional finance with the blockchain world. As of February 2025, the global stablecoin market capitalization is nearing $200 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the market. However, the report suggests that over the next two years, the applications of stablecoins will expand further, such as their integration into cross-border trade settlements, smart contract financing, and decentralized finance (DeFi). This diversified development will significantly boost market demand for crypto assets.
At the same time, security tokenization is seen as another major growth engine. Unlike traditional crypto tokens, security tokens digitalize real-world assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, using blockchain technology to enable higher liquidity and transparency. Bernstein predicts that by 2026, the global security token market could exceed $500 billion. This trend has not only attracted the attention of institutional investors but also offers unprecedented participation opportunities for retail investors. The report specifically mentions platforms like Robinhood, which are expected to further strengthen their position in the crypto market by providing tokenized asset trading services.
Robinhood: From “Peripheral Player” to “Core Hub”
Robinhood, a trading platform primarily targeting younger users, has made remarkable strides in the cryptocurrency space. Bernstein’s data reveals that, at present, non-crypto assets (stocks and options) contribute 60% of Robinhood’s trading revenue, while cryptocurrencies account for 40%. However, the research report boldly predicts that this proportion will dramatically reverse between 2025 and 2026, with cryptocurrency trading potentially accounting for more than 70% of its revenue. Behind this shift is Robinhood’s keen grasp of market trends and the gradual relaxation of the regulatory environment in the United States.
Notably, Morgan Stanley previously expressed similar views, noting that as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) clarifies its regulatory framework for crypto businesses, Robinhood will be able to “participate more actively” in the crypto market competition. This could involve launching more crypto derivatives, supporting tokenized asset trading, and potentially venturing into decentralized finance. In light of this positive outlook, Bernstein has raised Robinhood’s target stock price nearly by 100% to $105, showing strong confidence in the company’s future growth.
The “Invisible Driver” Behind the Bull Market
Beyond stablecoins and security tokenization, Bernstein highlights a potential factor not explicitly emphasized in the report, which could also be crucial: changes in the global macroeconomic environment. In 2025, as major economies gradually emerge from the shadow of high inflation, a period of interest rate cuts may inject new vitality into risk assets, and the “digital gold” nature of cryptocurrencies will become even more apparent. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty may drive more capital into decentralized assets as a safe haven. This “invisible driver,” combined with technology-driven innovation, could provide an unexpected boost to the cryptocurrency bull market.
Of course, the predicted bull market does not come without risks. Uncertainties in regulatory policies, technological vulnerabilities, and overheated market speculation could all act as roadblocks. For example, if security tokenization is to be widely adopted, challenges related to legal compliance and cross-border coordination will need to be addressed. Meanwhile, the expansion of stablecoins may face competitive pressure from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). However, Bernstein believes that these challenges will accelerate the industry’s process of elimination, ultimately driving the crypto market toward maturity.