Standard Chartered’s annual surprise list says cryptocurrency prices could plummet, with bitcoin dropping to $5,000 by 2023.
While the global bank’s 2023 financial market surprise is far from forecast – as it focuses on what its analysts believe is still “undervalued” by the market – it does suggest that the woes of cryptocurrencies are far from over.
The 70% drop in bitcoin’s price was predicated on a host of other things, including a Fed reversal of its recent aggressive rate hikes, a deteriorating economy, a sharp drop in tech stocks, and most notably contagion Eric Robertson, global head of research at Standard Chartered Bank. Robertsen wrote on Sunday about the collapse of the FTX exchange and its sister trading firm Alameda Research last month. He says:
“Yields have plummeted along with tech stocks, and while the Bitcoin sell-off has decelerated, the damage has been done. More and more crypto firms and exchanges are finding themselves illiquid, leading to further bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets. “
In this case, gold will take off, rising as much as 30%.
More bankruptcies
There will be another string of bankruptcies, such as the failure of the terra/LUNA stablecoin and the subsequent collapse of crypto hedge fund Three Arrow Capital in July, which led to the collapse of more than half a dozen crypto lenders. So far, FTX’s collateral damage has been limited to BlockFi, the cryptocurrency lender that Sam Bankman-Fried tried but failed to save.
But Digital Currency Group is reportedly trying to save its Genesis crypto brokerage from bankruptcy. Genesis’ lending arm, Genesis Global Capital, froze withdrawals on Nov. 16 and reportedly warned investors that it could fall into bankruptcy if it fails to raise $1 billion — and if that happens, fears could rise. will spread. DCG also owns struggling bitcoin trust manager Grayscale.
The overall outcome would be catastrophic for Bitcoin, Robertson said, but emphasized that there is a “non-zero probability” of this happening in 2023 and is “largely outside of market consensus or our own expectations.” Baseline view.”
Bitcoin is currently down about 75% from its November 2021 all-time high above $68,000. Robertson said:
“After the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sister trading firm Alameda Research, the question of the future of digital assets has arguably never been more difficult to answer. The tremors spreading from the explosion have the potential to topple more crypto companies and self-serve tokens price.
Different perspectives
Bloomberg Intelligence’s new 2023 cryptocurrency outlook takes a very different view, showing that history looks back to 2022 in much the same way it looks back to the 2000-02 bear market in internet stocks.
Senior analyst Mike McGlone sees Bitcoin as an emerging asset trading at a “deep discount,” writing:
“In the most significant global macro reset of a lifetime, it may not be a surprise that the fastest-growing horses have been the leading losers… A year later, the Fed may turn to easy policy, and cryptocurrencies seem poised to recover They tend to outperform most traditional assets.”
McGlone believes that Bitcoin is “becoming digital gold” – a comment that has been almost unheard of since the cryptocurrency crash in late 2021 – McGlone said that despite “one of the most severe drawdowns in crypto history”, BCGI has since the end of 2019. rose about 200%.
Compared to gold, the S&P 500, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and the U.S. money supply are up 20% to 60% as of Dec. 2, he said, adding:
“Our bias is risk versus reward, with BGCI favoring a return to its outperform bias.”