According to a report by the crypto analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin’s price has stagnated, with investor sentiment remaining subdued over the past six months. However, significant changes have occurred in the last three months, with increasing downward pressure leading to the most substantial correction of this market cycle.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin’s current spot price is about 22% below its all-time high. Compared to historical bull market corrections, this is a relatively small decline, indicating that most Bitcoin investors remain significantly profitable, highlighting the robustness of their positions.
However, the short-term holders are facing substantial unrealized losses, making them the most vulnerable group. They are expected to be the primary source of selling pressure during market downturns. This group, representing new market demand, appears to be bearing most of the market’s pressure, with their unrealized losses dominating and continuing to grow over the past few months.
This observation is supported by the Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio, which has fallen below the breakeven point of 1.0, indicating that, on average, new investors are holding positions at a loss. Overall, unless Bitcoin’s price returns to the short-term holder cost basis of $62,400, the market is expected to remain weak.
Meanwhile, both profit-taking and loss-cutting activities remain minimal, suggesting the current price range has become saturated. Key indicators, such as the Seller Risk Ratio, imply the potential for higher volatility in the near future.
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