In its latest semi-annual AMA, the Ethereum Foundation made a bold prediction: the Ethereum network’s transactions per second (TPS) could skyrocket to 10 million within the next decade. This ambitious target not only highlights Ethereum’s drive for technological breakthroughs but also paints an exciting picture for the future development of the blockchain industry.
Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, stated during the event that the first phase of the upcoming Pectra upgrade will be launched in the coming months, with a focus on optimizing data availability. He explained that the upgrade will increase the Blob transaction limit per block from three to six, directly boosting transaction throughput. This change is expected to reshape the Blob fee market. Although some in the community have proposed raising the base fee, Drake believes this idea is short-sighted. “We need to focus on long-term value, not short-term adjustments,” he emphasized.
Drake further predicted that if Ethereum’s TPS reaches 10 million within ten years, it would enable roughly 100 transactions per person per day globally. Even with a transaction fee as low as $0.001 per transaction, daily revenue could reach $1 billion. This figure is not only exciting but also suggests that Ethereum could evolve from a purely technical network into a critical pillar of the global economy. “This is not an unattainable dream but a clear coordinate on the technology roadmap,” Drake confidently stated.
Another highlight of the Pectra upgrade is the promotion of the “native Rollup” mechanism, which aims to reduce Layer 1’s dependency on Layer 2 solutions, thereby enhancing the network’s economic resilience. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin added, “We want Ethereum to remain open and neutral, becoming a platform that anyone can trust.” This vision underscores Ethereum’s determination to serve as a “public cornerstone” in the decentralized world.
Meanwhile, the surge in demand for data availability is emerging as a new challenge in Ethereum’s scalability efforts. Researchers have pointed out that as the network grows, the supply side will face increased pressure, and future solutions like Danksharding will be key to overcoming this bottleneck. To ensure the smooth progress of the Pectra upgrade, the Ethereum Foundation announced a $2 million bug bounty program, inviting global developers to rigorously test the hard fork to ensure flawless security.
Ethereum’s grand vision is not only a confident declaration of its technological potential but also sets a new benchmark for the industry. In ten years, when TPS breaks the 10 million mark, this vast blockchain network could radically change our imagination of the digital economy.