Bitcoin’s price has exploded in 2021, topping $60,000 in April and hitting an all-time high of nearly $70,000 in November. However, since that peak, the asset has reversed its trajectory, losing more than 50% of its value.
BTC fell below $18,000 in June, driven by unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and the global financial crisis. In fact, the second quarter of 2022 was the worst quarter in about a decade. All these negative events, combined with waning investor interest, have led many experts in the field to believe that the crypto winter will dominate.
So when will Bitcoin’s next bull run come? In a recent interview, Mark Yusko, head of Morgan Creek Capital Management, claimed that this period of price decline and uncertainty is over. In his view, spring has come, and with it a recovery in the price of bitcoin: I think spring has come. If you look at the last two cycles, we have the same number of days in the cycle that starts in spring and ends in winter. Spring can last for several months. We don’t have to have an immediate bull market.
Specifically, Yusko predicts that there will be a transition to crypto summer in 2024, when the next BTC halving will occur: then when we get to summer, that’s when we’ll make our next move, and guess it will be in The next halving in 2024 is expected to come.
Halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years and reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created by cutting the block reward in half. Miners currently receive 6.25 BTC per block, and by 2024 that number will drop to 3.125 BTC. The event is considered highly bullish as it slows the production rate of new coins. At the same time, if demand remains the same or increases, basic economic principles dictate that the value of an asset should also rise.
In addition, Bitcoin Magazine said on social media that Bloomberg said that we may be only 2 years away from the next big explosion in Bitcoin price.
The forecast for 2024 is related to the macro environment. For now, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that they will not stop raising rates until there is “compelling evidence” that inflation is falling. It was the highest rate hike in 28 years as U.S. inflation jumped to a four-year high. Money could flow into more stable assets like bonds as the Fed plans to absorb market liquidity.
According to market analyst @tedtalksmacro, things could start to change as policymakers likely start cutting rates in 2024. In one of his recent articles, the analyst wrote: “2024, the next big year for cryptocurrencies.”
The Fed’s updated forecast material shows that policymakers are expected to start cutting interest rates in 2024, in line with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Earlier, Brett Harrison, president of FTX.US, tweeted that the crypto market will recover at a faster rate, and listed three elements to stimulate the market rebound, namely: 1. U.S. regulators give clear supervision .2. A more robust crypto options/futures market. 3. The US approves spot crypto ETFs.
Brett Harrison pointed out that the regulatory clarity of U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges and other digital asset providers will give institutional investors the confidence to bet on crypto assets for the long term; a more robust crypto futures and options market will also help bring in institutional capital, through Provides a capital-effective hedge to dampen volatility and make it easier for companies to gain exposure to crypto assets; while the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF could lead to another bull run, although no such product has yet been approved by the SEC.
Yves Lamoureux, president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co, pointed out that the next inflection point for Bitcoin’s price will be the halving event scheduled for 2024. According to Lamoureux, as Bitcoin’s supply dwindles, the asset will reflect its historical price action of appreciating. Moreover, the rebound will continue into 2025.