Bitcoin’s recent price volatility has sparked widespread discussion, but its underlying logic extends far beyond the cryptocurrency itself—it resonates deeply with the broader fatigue in global risk assets. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, offers a compelling insight: Bitcoin’s downward trend mirrors the performance of the “Magnificent Seven” U.S. stocks (e.g., Apple, Microsoft, and other tech giants) with striking consistency, rather than stemming from internal crypto-specific issues.
This phenomenon paints a broader picture: Bitcoin, as an emerging asset, has become intricately woven into the global financial ecosystem, its price fluctuations serving not just as a reflection of supply and demand but as a barometer of risk appetite.
Kendrick suggests that Bitcoin’s near-term rebound hinges on two pivotal “triggers.” First, a recovery in risk assets—if U.S. equities regain momentum, Bitcoin could ride the wave upward. Second, Bitcoin-specific positive developments, such as the U.S. or another sovereign nation announcing the purchase of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, could ignite market enthusiasm. However, if these catalysts fail to materialize, Bitcoin risks sliding below its current threshold of $76,500, potentially testing the psychological support level of $69,000.
Notably, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy pivot is emerging as a critical “weathervane” for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. As of March 12, 2025, market expectations for a May rate cut have surged from 50% to 75%, a shift that could act as a shot in the arm for Bitcoin. Lower interest rates would ease the dollar’s dominance over risk assets and might spur investors to reallocate capital into high-yield opportunities—Bitcoin being a prime beneficiary. Yet, if market sentiment continues to sour, compounded by uncertainties from Trump’s tariff policies, Bitcoin could linger in the doldrums for the near term.
Despite short-term turbulence, Kendrick remains steadfast in his prediction that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. This bullish outlook isn’t baseless optimism but rests on several profound trends. First, the global shift toward monetary easing appears irreversible, and the heightened likelihood of Fed rate cuts amid current volatility paves the way for Bitcoin and other inflation-resistant assets to thrive. Second, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” is gaining traction among institutions and governments; should sovereign purchases become a reality, its value proposition could undergo a transformative leap.
Uniquely, Kendrick views the current market correction as Bitcoin’s “accumulation phase” on its journey to new heights. He argues that, compared to traditional assets, Bitcoin’s volatility—while pronounced—comes with unmatched long-term return potential.
Historical data backs this up: since 2015, Bitcoin has delivered an annualized return of approximately 80%, dwarfing the S&P 500’s 10% and gold’s 2%. Even during the crypto winter of 2022, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience, rebounding swiftly from its lows. These factors underpin the rational case for a $200,000 target.
Bitcoin’s future trajectory isn’t solely self-driven—Trump’s tariff policies and the Fed’s interest rate decisions will serve as pivotal variables. High tariffs could dampen global economic vitality, indirectly weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin, while a hesitant Fed on rate cuts might sustain dollar strength, squeezing crypto market liquidity. Conversely, these uncertainties could become Bitcoin’s “tailwind in disguise”—economic turbulence often boosts demand for safe havens, and Bitcoin’s unique status as a decentralized asset could shine through.
In summary, Bitcoin’s current dip is merely a ripple in the broader tide of risk assets, with the $69,000 support level poised as the focal point of a near-term tug-of-war. Looking ahead, the $200,000 milestone is not a distant dream but a reasoned projection grounded in global macro trends and Bitcoin’s intrinsic value logic.