The recent developments in Bitcoin BTC -0.52%’s (BTC) price and its approach towards a key Fibonacci retracement level have generated considerable interest and speculation among cryptocurrency analysts and traders. Titan of Crypto, a popular social media trader, has been a vocal commentator on these trends, suggesting that Bitcoin is nearing the top of its “pre-halving rally.” This rally, according to Titan, could see BTC prices reaching between $39,000 and $50,000 before the next block subsidy halving event in April 2024.
Titan’s analysis, originally posted in December 2022 when Bitcoin was recovering from a low of $15,600, utilized Fibonacci retracement levels to predict a pre-halving peak of up to $50,000, a 220% increase from that low point. The rationale behind this prediction was based on historical patterns observed in Bitcoin’s pricing cycles. Typically, Bitcoin has experienced rallies before its halving events, with these rallies peaking within the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci retracement area.
This bullish sentiment is echoed by other analysts in the crypto community. For instance, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, has predicted a target around $46,000, acknowledging the potential for a price dip before achieving this level. Looking further ahead, some forecasts suggest a price of $130,000 or higher for Bitcoin by the end of 2025. On the downside, analysts have identified $30,900 as a potential floor for the next Bitcoin correction, arguing that a move lower to test liquidity could be a healthy and classic part of Bitcoin market uptrends.
Adding to the mix of analyses, a TradingView post by a prominent crypto analyst, TradingShot, anticipates a parabolic rally for Bitcoin in the coming weeks as it enters the pre-and post-halving phase of its market cycle. The analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s price tends to touch or surpass the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level during this phase, with $50,000 being the current target for this level. Post-halving, Bitcoin is expected to test its all-time high of $69,000, initiating a parabolic rally phase.
Historical cycles also play a role in these predictions. The 2017 phase peaked at the 2.382 Fibonacci extension, while the 2021 cycle reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. However, the theory of diminishing returns suggests that each successive cycle may not surpass the previous one by a significant margin, leading to a more conservative estimate of a potential worst-case scenario at $100,000, with a more optimistic projection of slightly over $120,000.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at around $36,359, having experienced a modest daily gain of about 0.20% but showing a nearly 2% decline on the weekly chart. This consolidation phase indicates a market awaiting its next significant move, influenced by factors such as potential ETF approval and the approaching halving event.
