Driven by the potential benefits of the Bitcoin BTC 0.27% spot ETF, BTC quickly rose to around $30,000, and then experienced three weeks of shocks, failing to break through the previous high many times. We believe that until the ETF gets an official answer, the market will not end, and Bitcoin will fluctuate and rise.
Ripple’s victory in the lawsuit boosted market sentiment, and popular altcoins will also usher in performance opportunities. At the same time, we are optimistic about the long-term positive impact of RWA on the Crypto market. It should be noted that macro and regulatory risks may still make a comeback and cause considerable disturbance to the market. We remain cautiously optimistic about the market outlook.
During the overall correction in June, the unanchoring of USDT confirmed the short-term bottom of BTC, and the chips changed hands during the decline, laying the foundation for a new round of rise.
Veteran Wall Street institutions such as Blackrock applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs, driving the market to rise rapidly, and BTC returned to the previous high, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the next month.
After Ripple won the lawsuit, XRP XRP 0.65% rose by more than 100%, the market risk appetite rose sharply, and popular altcoins will usher in performance opportunities.
Since June, BTC has started a short-term downward trend, while Tether FUD reappeared in mid-June, USDT has been slightly unpegged, and the USDC/USDT trading pair has risen to 1.0042. Last year, USDT broke anchor twice, one after the Luna crash, and the other after the FTX thunderstorm, both of which were short-term bottom signals.
The unanchoring of USDT occurred on June 15th. BTC stepped back on the important support level of $25,000 and then rose. The chips changed from weak hands to strong hands. The change of hands at the bottom made the chip structure more stable. Quite limited, often stopping around $30,000.
Many American asset management giants such as Blackrock and Investco have successively submitted applications for bitcoin spot ETFs, which has promoted the strong rise of bitcoin. The issuance of spot ETFs can provide traditional investors with more compliant and convenient investment channels, and is expected to bring hundreds of millions of dollars of incremental capital to the Crypto market.
Looking back at the bull market in the second half of 21, the market rose due to the expectation of the Bitcoin futures ETF, and peaked and fell after the Bitcoin futures ETF was approved. So, before the spot ETF was approved, the smart money jumped in and restarted the Mavericks.
This time, the old Wall Street institutions have applied for the Bitcoin ETF together. It seems that some institutions have already obtained regulatory acquiescence. In terms of time, the SEC will make a decision on the ARK Bitcoin spot ETF on August 13 at the latest, which also means that we may still have a hot market period of about a month.
During this period, smart money is willing to buy every pullback of Bitcoin, so it is difficult for Bitcoin to go down sharply, and it will continue to rise after experiencing shocks.
Although the correction of BTC in this rise is not large, and the current situation is also beneficial to the bulls, we must also note that macro and regulatory risks still cannot be ignored, which may cause unexpected disturbances to the market.
Therefore, we remain cautiously optimistic that the rise of BTC will not be smooth sailing, and the shock time may be longer than expected.
Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly emphasized that there is still room for two rate hikes in the second half of the year, and that they will not cut interest rates within the year. This has led to a rise in long-term U.S. bond interest rates, which is not conducive to risky assets.
At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is still continuing, and total assets have fallen below the level before the banking crisis in March, and will continue to decline in the future. In the case of continuous high interest rates and liquidity being drawn, it may be difficult for US stocks to continue the strong trend in the first half of the year. If there is a sharp decline, this will also have a negative impact on the Crypto market.
In early June, after the SEC sued Binance, BNB fell sharply, rebounded after touching the key support of $220, and then began to oscillate at the bottom. Although BTC has risen from the low to near the previous high, BNB has not risen at the same time, fluctuating between $220-$250, and Binance has also used Launchpad, Launchpool and other methods to boost the price of BNB.
Recently, a number of Binance executives have resigned, and public opinion is very unfavorable for Binance. Since BTC has risen to a relatively high level, if the regulatory incident returns, it may cause a lot of disturbance to the market.
BTC is facing the pressure level near the previous high, and it needs to fluctuate sideways for a period of time to absorb the selling pressure. Under the expectation of potential positive spot ETFs, the bulls still have the upper hand, waiting for a good time to push the market up. After Ripple won the lawsuit, market risk appetite picked up, and popular altcoins will usher in performance opportunities.
RWA will bring incremental funds to the market in the long run, but short-term development still faces many challenges. At the same time, macro and regulatory risks may still disturb the market, and the rise of Bitcoin may experience twists and turns. We remain cautiously optimistic about the market outlook, and we are optimistic about Bitcoin’s upward shock.
