Gabor Gurbacs, a Tether advisor, has made significant observations regarding the potential impact of a U.S. spot Bitcoin BTC 0.87% Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval on the cryptocurrency market. Drawing parallels to the historic surge in gold’s value following the launch of the SPDR Gold ETF in 2004, Gurbacs envisions a similar trajectory for Bitcoin upon the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
In 2004, the launch of the SPDR Gold ETF marked a pivotal moment in the gold market, leading to a dramatic increase in its market value from $2 trillion to $10 trillion over the next eight years. Gurbacs notes that Bitcoin, currently valued at approximately $750 billion, has substantial room for growth compared to gold’s valuation in 2004.
He anticipates a gradual influx of funds into Bitcoin, amounting to a few tens of billions of dollars, driven by Bitcoin’s relatively low float and the impact of its halving schedules.
Furthermore, Gurbacs predicts that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will not only legitimize Bitcoin but also destigmatize its role in investment portfolios. This change is expected to foster broader adoption beyond the ETF space, with nation-states and sovereign wealth funds potentially directly holding Bitcoin and investing in Bitcoin-based capital markets.
The potential approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, anticipated between January 5th and 10th, 2024, is seen as a major shift in the cryptocurrency scene, resembling the impact of the first spot gold ETF on Wall Street in November 2004. Gurbacs suggests that this approval could signal a significant transformation in the financial world, unlocking trillions of dollars in value and marking a historical moment in the digital assets realm.
A Bitcoin ETF could attract substantial institutional investments, with estimates suggesting an influx of $20-30 billion into Bitcoin through institutional products. This, combined with Bitcoin’s limited availability and systematic scarcity, could significantly enhance its market value.
Gurbacs’s analysis indicates that the approval of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF could have a transformative effect on Bitcoin’s market trajectory, potentially mirroring the dramatic growth seen in the gold market following the introduction of the GLD ETF.